Conns Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Conns Inc on the next trading day is expected to be -0.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.78. Conns Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Conns |
Conns Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Conns Inc on the next trading day is expected to be -0.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Conns Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Conns' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Conns Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Conns | Conns Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Conns stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Conns stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4121 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1276 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.7849 |
Predictive Modules for Conns
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Conns Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Conns Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Conns stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Conns could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Conns by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Conns Risk Indicators
The analysis of Conns' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Conns' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting conns stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.1 | |||
| Variance | 123.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Conns
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Conns position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Conns will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Conns Stock
Moving against Conns Stock
| 0.93 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | PTAIF | PT Astra International | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | CVX | Chevron Corp Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | AA | Alcoa Corp Fiscal Year End 15th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Conns could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Conns when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Conns - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Conns Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Conns is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Conns moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Conns Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Conns can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Other Consideration for investing in Conns Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Conns Inc check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Conns' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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