Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GSHD Stock | USD 126.12 0.38 0.30% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 129.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.29. Goosehead Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Goosehead Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Goosehead Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Goosehead Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Goosehead |
Goosehead Insurance Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Goosehead Insurance's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-12-31 | Previous Quarter 26.3 M | Current Value 47.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 13.6 M |
Goosehead Insurance Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Goosehead Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 129.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02, mean absolute percentage error of 6.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Goosehead Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Goosehead Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Goosehead Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
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Goosehead Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Goosehead Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Goosehead Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 126.88 and 131.85, respectively. We have considered Goosehead Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Goosehead Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Goosehead Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9716 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0211 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.2872 |
Predictive Modules for Goosehead Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goosehead Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Goosehead Insurance
For every potential investor in Goosehead, whether a beginner or expert, Goosehead Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Goosehead Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Goosehead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Goosehead Insurance's price trends.Goosehead Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Goosehead Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Goosehead Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Goosehead Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Goosehead Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Goosehead Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Goosehead Insurance's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Goosehead Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Goosehead Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Goosehead Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Goosehead Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Goosehead Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Goosehead Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Goosehead Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Goosehead Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting goosehead stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9368 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Variance | 6.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8775 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Goosehead Insurance is a strong investment it is important to analyze Goosehead Insurance's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Goosehead Insurance's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Goosehead Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Goosehead Insurance to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Goosehead Stock refer to our How to Trade Goosehead Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Insurance Brokers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Goosehead Insurance. If investors know Goosehead will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Goosehead Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.051 | Earnings Share 0.71 | Revenue Per Share 11.444 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.1 | Return On Assets 0.0637 |
The market value of Goosehead Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Goosehead that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Goosehead Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Goosehead Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Goosehead Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Goosehead Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Goosehead Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Goosehead Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goosehead Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.