GULF ENERGY Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GULF-R Stock  THB 59.75  0.75  1.24%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR on the next trading day is expected to be 53.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.42. GULF Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast GULF ENERGY stock prices and determine the direction of GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GULF ENERGY's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for GULF ENERGY is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GULF ENERGY Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR on the next trading day is expected to be 53.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36, mean absolute percentage error of 4.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GULF Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GULF ENERGY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GULF ENERGY Stock Forecast Pattern

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GULF ENERGY Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GULF ENERGY's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GULF ENERGY's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.58 and 57.51, respectively. We have considered GULF ENERGY's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
59.75
53.54
Expected Value
57.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GULF ENERGY stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GULF ENERGY stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.5057
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3616
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0253
SAESum of the absolute errors84.419
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GULF ENERGY. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GULF ENERGY

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
55.7959.7563.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
53.2957.2561.21
Details

Other Forecasting Options for GULF ENERGY

For every potential investor in GULF, whether a beginner or expert, GULF ENERGY's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GULF Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GULF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GULF ENERGY's price trends.

GULF ENERGY Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GULF ENERGY stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GULF ENERGY could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GULF ENERGY by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GULF ENERGY's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GULF ENERGY's current price.

GULF ENERGY Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GULF ENERGY stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GULF ENERGY shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GULF ENERGY stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GULF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT NVDR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GULF ENERGY Risk Indicators

The analysis of GULF ENERGY's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GULF ENERGY's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gulf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in GULF Stock

GULF ENERGY financial ratios help investors to determine whether GULF Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GULF with respect to the benefits of owning GULF ENERGY security.