TAL Education Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IZZ Stock  EUR 9.25  0.10  1.09%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TAL Education Group on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.44. TAL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of TAL Education's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for TAL Education is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of TAL Education Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

TAL Education Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of TAL Education Group on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TAL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TAL Education's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TAL Education Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TAL EducationTAL Education Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

TAL Education Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TAL Education's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TAL Education's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.20 and 14.39, respectively. We have considered TAL Education's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.25
8.79
Expected Value
14.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TAL Education stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TAL Education stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3602
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3187
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0322
SAESum of the absolute errors19.4418
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of TAL Education Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict TAL Education. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for TAL Education

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TAL Education Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.659.2514.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.678.2713.87
Details

Other Forecasting Options for TAL Education

For every potential investor in TAL, whether a beginner or expert, TAL Education's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TAL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TAL Education's price trends.

TAL Education Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TAL Education stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TAL Education could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TAL Education by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

TAL Education Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TAL Education's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TAL Education's current price.

TAL Education Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TAL Education stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TAL Education shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TAL Education stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TAL Education Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TAL Education Risk Indicators

The analysis of TAL Education's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TAL Education's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in TAL Stock

When determining whether TAL Education Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze TAL Education's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TAL Education's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TAL Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TAL Education to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TAL Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TAL Education is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TAL Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.