Direxion Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MOON Etf | USD 10.33 0.16 1.53% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Direxion on the next trading day is expected to be 10.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.60. Direxion Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Direxion |
Direxion Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Direxion on the next trading day is expected to be 10.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Direxion Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Direxion | Direxion Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4266 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2066 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0208 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.6002 |
Predictive Modules for Direxion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Direxion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Direxion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Direxion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Direxion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Direxion
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Direxion position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Direxion will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Direxion could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Direxion when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Direxion - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Direxion to buy it.
The correlation of Direxion is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Direxion moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Direxion moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Direxion can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
The market value of Direxion is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.