Precious Metals Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

PMPSX Fund  USD 43.32  1.62  3.60%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Precious Metals Ultrasector on the next trading day is expected to be 42.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 103.02. Precious Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Precious Metals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Precious Metals Ultrasector value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Precious Metals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Precious Metals Ultrasector on the next trading day is expected to be 42.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66, mean absolute percentage error of 4.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 103.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Precious Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Precious Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Precious Metals Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Precious MetalsPrecious Metals Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Precious Metals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Precious Metals' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Precious Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.57 and 45.33, respectively. We have considered Precious Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
43.32
42.45
Expected Value
45.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Precious Metals mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Precious Metals mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.4298
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.6616
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0341
SAESum of the absolute errors103.0167
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Precious Metals Ultrasector. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Precious Metals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Precious Metals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Precious Metals Ultr. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Precious Metals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
40.4443.3246.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.3241.2044.08
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Precious Metals

For every potential investor in Precious, whether a beginner or expert, Precious Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Precious Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Precious. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Precious Metals' price trends.

Precious Metals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Precious Metals mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Precious Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Precious Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Precious Metals Ultr Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Precious Metals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Precious Metals' current price.

Precious Metals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Precious Metals mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Precious Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Precious Metals mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Precious Metals Ultrasector entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Precious Metals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Precious Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Precious Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting precious mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Precious Mutual Fund

Precious Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Precious Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Precious with respect to the benefits of owning Precious Metals security.
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.