Target Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TGTB34 Stock  BRL 797.50  7.56  0.94%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Target on the next trading day is expected to be 798.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 24.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,482. Target Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Target stock prices and determine the direction of Target's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Target's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Target is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Target value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Target Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Target on the next trading day is expected to be 798.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 24.30, mean absolute percentage error of 1,136, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,482.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Target Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Target's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Target Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TargetTarget Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Target Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Target's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Target's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 795.04 and 801.98, respectively. We have considered Target's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
797.50
795.04
Downside
798.51
Expected Value
801.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Target stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Target stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.1455
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation24.2968
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0293
SAESum of the absolute errors1482.1023
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Target. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Target. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Target

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Target. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
794.03797.50800.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
669.83673.30877.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Target. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Target's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Target's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Target.

Other Forecasting Options for Target

For every potential investor in Target, whether a beginner or expert, Target's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Target Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Target. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Target's price trends.

Target Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Target stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Target could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Target by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Target Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Target's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Target's current price.

Target Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Target stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Target shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Target stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Target entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Target Risk Indicators

The analysis of Target's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Target's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting target stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Target Stock

When determining whether Target is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Target Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Target Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Target Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Target to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Target Stock refer to our How to Trade Target Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Target's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Target is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Target's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.