Air Transport Services Stock Price Prediction
| ATSG Stock | USD 21.96 0.03 0.14% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
85
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.31 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.788 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.054 | Wall Street Target Price 22.5 |
Using Air Transport hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air Transport Services from the perspective of Air Transport response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Air Transport Services Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Air Transport's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Air. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Air can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Air Transport Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Air Transport's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Air Transport.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Air Transport to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Air because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Air Transport after-hype prediction price | USD 21.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Air |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Transport's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air Transport After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Air Transport at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air Transport or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Air Transport, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Air Transport Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Air Transport's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air Transport's historical news coverage. Air Transport's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.07 and 25.83, respectively. We have considered Air Transport's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Air Transport is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air Transport Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Air Transport Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air Transport is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air Transport backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air Transport, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.59 | 3.88 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.96 | 21.95 | 0.05 |
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Air Transport Hype Timeline
Air Transport Services is presently traded for 21.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Air is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 21.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.59%. The volatility of related hype on Air Transport is about 4271.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.91. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Air Transport Services recorded a loss per share of 0.01. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Air Transport Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Air Transport Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Air Transport's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air Transport's future price movements. Getting to know how Air Transport's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air Transport may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CPA | Copa Holdings SA | (1.13) | 8 per month | 2.66 | (0.01) | 3.72 | (2.73) | 17.32 | |
| SKYW | SkyWest | (2.19) | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.28 | 3.80 | (1.66) | 9.51 | |
| SNCY | Sun Country Airlines | (0.05) | 9 per month | 2.62 | 0.11 | 7.47 | (4.50) | 16.71 | |
| ULCC | Frontier Group Holdings | (0.29) | 11 per month | 4.59 | 0.16 | 10.08 | (3.98) | 34.82 | |
| ALGT | Allegiant Travel | 2.59 | 10 per month | 2.07 | 0.29 | 6.22 | (3.91) | 16.10 | |
| MESA | Mesa Air Group | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.19 | (6.38) | 28.65 | |
| HA | Hawaiian Holdings | (0.03) | 7 per month | 2.67 | 0.11 | 6.96 | (4.90) | 18.66 | |
| BABWF | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.72 | 0.11 | 11.23 | (7.93) | 34.52 | |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 15.29 | (21.43) | 112.38 | |
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | (0.10) | 7 per month | 4.15 | 0.06 | 7.53 | (6.73) | 31.32 | |
| AZUL | Azul SA | 0.15 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.51 | (9.61) | 41.88 | |
| GOL | Gol Linhas Aereas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.74 | 0.17 | 9.50 | (5.98) | 24.06 |
Air Transport Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Air Transport Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Air Transport stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Air Transport Services, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Air Transport based on analysis of Air Transport hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Air Transport's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Air Transport's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 36.65 | 53.82 | 38.0 | PTB Ratio | 1.43 | 1.35 | 0.88 |
Story Coverage note for Air Transport
The number of cover stories for Air Transport depends on current market conditions and Air Transport's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Air Transport is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Air Transport's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Air Transport Short Properties
Air Transport's future price predictability will typically decrease when Air Transport's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Air Transport Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Air Transport's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Transport's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.6 M |
Complementary Tools for Air Stock analysis
When running Air Transport's price analysis, check to measure Air Transport's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air Transport is operating at the current time. Most of Air Transport's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air Transport's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air Transport's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air Transport to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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