The Chefs Warehouse Stock Price Prediction
| CHEF Stock | USD 44.71 0.15 0.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.766 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.4139 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7293 | Wall Street Target Price 51 |
Using Chefs Warehouse hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Chefs Warehouse from the perspective of Chefs Warehouse response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Chefs Warehouse using Chefs Warehouse's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Chefs using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Chefs Warehouse's stock price.
Chefs Warehouse Implied Volatility | 0.73 |
Chefs Warehouse's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Chefs Warehouse stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Chefs Warehouse's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Chefs Warehouse stock will not fluctuate a lot when Chefs Warehouse's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Chefs Warehouse to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Chefs because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Chefs Warehouse after-hype prediction price | USD 44.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Chefs contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Chefs Warehouse will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0456% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Chefs Warehouse trading at USD 44.71, that is roughly USD 0.0204 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Chefs Warehouse's daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Chefs Warehouse options at the current volatility level of 0.73%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Chefs |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chefs Warehouse's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Chefs Warehouse After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chefs Warehouse at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chefs Warehouse or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chefs Warehouse, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chefs Warehouse Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chefs Warehouse's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chefs Warehouse's historical news coverage. Chefs Warehouse's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.85 and 46.71, respectively. We have considered Chefs Warehouse's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chefs Warehouse is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chefs Warehouse is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chefs Warehouse Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chefs Warehouse is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chefs Warehouse backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chefs Warehouse, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.93 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.71 | 44.78 | 0.16 |
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Chefs Warehouse Hype Timeline
Chefs Warehouse is currently traded for 44.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Chefs is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 44.78 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Chefs Warehouse is about 598.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.68. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.43 B. Net Income was 34.59 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 618.64 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Chefs Warehouse Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Chefs Warehouse Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chefs Warehouse's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chefs Warehouse's future price movements. Getting to know how Chefs Warehouse's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chefs Warehouse may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| USFD | US Foods Holding | 1.70 | 10 per month | 0.91 | 0.10 | 2.20 | (1.58) | 6.32 | |
| SYY | Sysco | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.29 | (0.10) | 1.44 | (1.80) | 5.28 | |
| SPTN | SpartanNash Co | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.26 | (3.34) | 16.02 | |
| CVGW | Calavo Growers | (0.89) | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.05 | 4.84 | (2.39) | 14.87 | |
| AVO | Mission Produce | (0.07) | 12 per month | 0.99 | 0.07 | 2.31 | (2.01) | 24.92 | |
| UNFI | United Natural Foods | (0.01) | 12 per month | 2.46 | 0.16 | 5.68 | (4.28) | 40.04 | |
| ANDE | The Andersons | 0.50 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.61 | (2.78) | 15.56 | |
| PFGC | Performance Food Group | (1.15) | 8 per month | 0.80 | 0.09 | 2.42 | (1.54) | 9.40 | |
| DIT | AMCON Distributing | (3.00) | 4 per month | 3.03 | (0.03) | 7.69 | (5.43) | 20.23 |
Chefs Warehouse Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chefs price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chefs using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chefs charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Chefs Warehouse Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Chefs Warehouse stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as The Chefs Warehouse, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Chefs Warehouse based on analysis of Chefs Warehouse hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Chefs Warehouse's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Chefs Warehouse's related companies. | 2010 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 3.64E-4 | 0.00385 | 0.004043 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.69 | 1.13 | 0.76 |
Story Coverage note for Chefs Warehouse
The number of cover stories for Chefs Warehouse depends on current market conditions and Chefs Warehouse's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chefs Warehouse is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chefs Warehouse's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Chefs Warehouse Short Properties
Chefs Warehouse's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chefs Warehouse's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Chefs Warehouse often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chefs Warehouse's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chefs Warehouse's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.9 M |
Complementary Tools for Chefs Stock analysis
When running Chefs Warehouse's price analysis, check to measure Chefs Warehouse's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chefs Warehouse is operating at the current time. Most of Chefs Warehouse's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chefs Warehouse's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chefs Warehouse's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chefs Warehouse to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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