Comstock Resources Stock Price Prediction
| CRK Stock | USD 16.91 1.69 11.10% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
76
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.79) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.05 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.37) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4934 | Wall Street Target Price 11.125 |
Using Comstock Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Comstock Resources from the perspective of Comstock Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Comstock Resources using Comstock Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Comstock using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Comstock Resources' stock price.
Comstock Resources Implied Volatility | 3.08 |
Comstock Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Comstock Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Comstock Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Comstock Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when Comstock Resources' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Comstock Resources to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Comstock because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Comstock Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 14.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Comstock contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Comstock Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.19% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Comstock Resources trading at USD 16.91, that is roughly USD 0.0326 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Comstock Resources' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Comstock Resources options at the current volatility level of 3.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Comstock |
Comstock Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Comstock Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Comstock Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Comstock Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Comstock Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Comstock Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Comstock Resources' historical news coverage. Comstock Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.93 and 17.69, respectively. We have considered Comstock Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Comstock Resources is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Comstock Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Comstock Resources Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Comstock Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Comstock Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Comstock Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.74 | 2.88 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.91 | 14.81 | 2.69 |
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Comstock Resources Hype Timeline
On the 11th of December 2024 Comstock Resources is traded for 16.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Comstock is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -2.69%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.74%. The volatility of related hype on Comstock Resources is about 115200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.91. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.88. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Comstock Resources recorded a loss per share of 0.18. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of November 2023. The firm had 1:5 split on the 1st of August 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Comstock Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Comstock Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Comstock Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Comstock Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Comstock Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Comstock Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RRC | Range Resources Corp | (0.32) | 10 per month | 1.37 | 0.10 | 3.64 | (2.32) | 8.95 | |
| PR | Permian Resources | 0.11 | 8 per month | 2.12 | 0.04 | 2.90 | (3.87) | 8.87 | |
| SWN | Southwestern Energy | 0.15 | 9 per month | 1.50 | (0.02) | 2.82 | (2.32) | 6.63 | |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | (0.47) | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.17 | 3.68 | (2.17) | 10.09 | |
| ESTE | Earthstone Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.66 | 0.01 | 4.37 | (4.80) | 10.76 | |
| VTLE | Vital Energy | 0.98 | 9 per month | 3.14 | 0.03 | 5.41 | (6.20) | 17.63 | |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil Gas | (0.52) | 9 per month | 2.05 | 0.02 | 2.89 | (3.67) | 10.45 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | (0.05) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.76 | (4.08) | 14.69 | |
| AR | Antero Resources Corp | 0.02 | 10 per month | 1.88 | 0.09 | 4.91 | (2.59) | 13.54 | |
| CHK | Chesapeake Energy | 0.47 | 10 per month | 1.47 | (0.07) | 2.63 | (2.45) | 5.88 | |
| MTDR | Matador Resources | (0.34) | 10 per month | 2.33 | 0.04 | 3.24 | (3.39) | 12.94 | |
| CPE | Callon Petroleum | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.03 | (0.03) | 4.32 | (5.23) | 12.38 |
Comstock Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Comstock price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Comstock using various technical indicators. When you analyze Comstock charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Comstock Resources Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Comstock Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Comstock Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Comstock Resources based on analysis of Comstock Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Comstock Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Comstock Resources's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.009339 | 0.0157 | 0.0567 | 0.0596 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.01 | 0.89 | 1.57 | 1.49 |
Story Coverage note for Comstock Resources
The number of cover stories for Comstock Resources depends on current market conditions and Comstock Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Comstock Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Comstock Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Comstock Resources Short Properties
Comstock Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Comstock Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Comstock Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Comstock Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comstock Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 276.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.7 M |
Check out Comstock Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Comstock Stock please use our How to buy in Comstock Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comstock Resources. If investors know Comstock will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comstock Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.79) | Earnings Share (0.18) | Revenue Per Share 4.574 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Comstock Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comstock that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comstock Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comstock Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comstock Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comstock Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comstock Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Comstock Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comstock Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.