Taiwan Fertilizer (Taiwan) Market Value
| 1722 Stock | TWD 55.70 0.20 0.36% |
| Symbol | Taiwan |
Taiwan Fertilizer 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Taiwan Fertilizer's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Taiwan Fertilizer.
| 12/09/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Taiwan Fertilizer on December 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Taiwan Fertilizer Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in Taiwan Fertilizer over 360 days. Taiwan Fertilizer is related to or competes with Formosa Petrochemical, and Cathay Financial. Taiwan Fertilizer Co., Ltd. produces and sells fertilizers and chemical products in Taiwan and internationally More
Taiwan Fertilizer Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Taiwan Fertilizer's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Taiwan Fertilizer Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.41 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.79 |
Taiwan Fertilizer Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Taiwan Fertilizer's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Taiwan Fertilizer's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Taiwan Fertilizer historical prices to predict the future Taiwan Fertilizer's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.29) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.89) |
Taiwan Fertilizer Backtested Returns
Taiwan Fertilizer owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0124, which indicates the firm had a -0.0124% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Taiwan Fertilizer Co exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Taiwan Fertilizer's Variance of 1.64, coefficient of variation of (1,476), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.11, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Taiwan Fertilizer's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Taiwan Fertilizer is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Taiwan Fertilizer has a negative expected return of -0.0152%. Please make sure to validate Taiwan Fertilizer's mean deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Taiwan Fertilizer performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.64 |
Good predictability
Taiwan Fertilizer Co has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Taiwan Fertilizer time series from 9th of December 2023 to 6th of June 2024 and 6th of June 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Taiwan Fertilizer price movement. The serial correlation of 0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current Taiwan Fertilizer price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.64 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.53 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 12.38 |
Taiwan Fertilizer lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Taiwan Fertilizer stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Taiwan Fertilizer's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Taiwan Fertilizer returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Taiwan Fertilizer has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Taiwan Fertilizer regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Taiwan Fertilizer stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Taiwan Fertilizer stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Taiwan Fertilizer stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Taiwan Fertilizer Lagged Returns
When evaluating Taiwan Fertilizer's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Taiwan Fertilizer stock have on its future price. Taiwan Fertilizer autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Taiwan Fertilizer autocorrelation shows the relationship between Taiwan Fertilizer stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Taiwan Fertilizer Co.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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When running Taiwan Fertilizer's price analysis, check to measure Taiwan Fertilizer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Taiwan Fertilizer is operating at the current time. Most of Taiwan Fertilizer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Taiwan Fertilizer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Taiwan Fertilizer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Taiwan Fertilizer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.