TRAINLINE PLC (Germany) Market Value
| 2T9A Stock | EUR 4.84 0.02 0.41% |
| Symbol | TRAINLINE |
TRAINLINE PLC 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TRAINLINE PLC's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TRAINLINE PLC.
| 05/06/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TRAINLINE PLC on May 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TRAINLINE PLC LS or generate 0.0% return on investment in TRAINLINE PLC over 210 days. TRAINLINE PLC is related to or competes with Treasury Wine, Kaufman Broad, AAC TECHNOLOGHLDGADR, Playtech Plc, QUEEN S, TITANIUM TRANSPORTGROUP, and Broadwind. Trainline Plc operates an independent rail and coach travel platform that sells rail and coach tickets worldwide More
TRAINLINE PLC Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TRAINLINE PLC's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TRAINLINE PLC LS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1534 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.43 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.52 |
TRAINLINE PLC Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TRAINLINE PLC's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TRAINLINE PLC's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TRAINLINE PLC historical prices to predict the future TRAINLINE PLC's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1684 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3134 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0956 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1686 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3514 |
TRAINLINE PLC LS Backtested Returns
TRAINLINE PLC appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. TRAINLINE PLC LS retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.21, which indicates the firm had a 0.21% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting TRAINLINE PLC's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.5% is justified by implied risk. Please review TRAINLINE PLC's risk adjusted performance of 0.1684, and Downside Deviation of 2.16 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, TRAINLINE PLC holds a performance score of 16. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 1.4, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, TRAINLINE PLC will likely underperform. Please check TRAINLINE PLC's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether TRAINLINE PLC's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.01 |
Virtually no predictability
TRAINLINE PLC LS has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TRAINLINE PLC time series from 6th of May 2024 to 19th of August 2024 and 19th of August 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TRAINLINE PLC LS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current TRAINLINE PLC price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.25 |
TRAINLINE PLC LS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TRAINLINE PLC stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TRAINLINE PLC's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TRAINLINE PLC returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TRAINLINE PLC has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TRAINLINE PLC regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TRAINLINE PLC stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TRAINLINE PLC stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TRAINLINE PLC stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TRAINLINE PLC Lagged Returns
When evaluating TRAINLINE PLC's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TRAINLINE PLC stock have on its future price. TRAINLINE PLC autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TRAINLINE PLC autocorrelation shows the relationship between TRAINLINE PLC stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TRAINLINE PLC LS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in TRAINLINE Stock
TRAINLINE PLC financial ratios help investors to determine whether TRAINLINE Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TRAINLINE with respect to the benefits of owning TRAINLINE PLC security.