ARISTOCRAT LEISURE (Germany) Market Value
| AC8 Stock | EUR 41.60 0.42 1.02% |
| Symbol | ARISTOCRAT |
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ARISTOCRAT LEISURE on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ARISTOCRAT LEISURE or generate 0.0% return on investment in ARISTOCRAT LEISURE over 30 days. ARISTOCRAT LEISURE is related to or competes with TOTAL GABON, and Walgreens Boots. More
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ARISTOCRAT LEISURE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.242 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.03 |
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ARISTOCRAT LEISURE historical prices to predict the future ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.3001 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3244 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1973 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1812 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.62 |
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Backtested Returns
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. ARISTOCRAT LEISURE secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.39, which signifies that the company had a 0.39% return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for ARISTOCRAT LEISURE, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's Mean Deviation of 0.7105, risk adjusted performance of 0.3001, and Semi Deviation of 0.1835 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE holds a performance score of 31. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.22, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ARISTOCRAT LEISURE is expected to be smaller as well. Please check ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's sortino ratio, potential upside, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.15 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ARISTOCRAT LEISURE time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE price movement. The serial correlation of -0.15 indicates that less than 15.0% of current ARISTOCRAT LEISURE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.15 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
ARISTOCRAT LEISURE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ARISTOCRAT LEISURE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ARISTOCRAT LEISURE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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ARISTOCRAT LEISURE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ARISTOCRAT LEISURE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ARISTOCRAT LEISURE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ARISTOCRAT LEISURE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Lagged Returns
When evaluating ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE stock have on its future price. ARISTOCRAT LEISURE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE autocorrelation shows the relationship between ARISTOCRAT LEISURE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ARISTOCRAT LEISURE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for ARISTOCRAT Stock Analysis
When running ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's price analysis, check to measure ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARISTOCRAT LEISURE is operating at the current time. Most of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARISTOCRAT LEISURE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARISTOCRAT LEISURE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.