AECI (South Africa) Market Value
| AFE Stock | 9,210 14.00 0.15% |
| Symbol | AECI |
AECI 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AECI's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AECI.
| 06/09/2023 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AECI on June 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AECI or generate 0.0% return on investment in AECI over 540 days. AECI is related to or competes with Kumba Iron, CA Sales, Standard Bank, and African Media. More
AECI Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AECI's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AECI upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.36) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.4 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.85) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.41 |
AECI Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AECI's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AECI's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AECI historical prices to predict the future AECI's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.16) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.39) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 9.08 |
AECI Backtested Returns
AECI retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.23, which signifies that the company had a -0.23% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. AECI exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AECI's variance of 0.9708, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 9.09 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.0248, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AECI are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AECI is likely to outperform the market. At this point, AECI has a negative expected return of -0.23%. Please make sure to confirm AECI's total risk alpha, potential upside, and the relationship between the standard deviation and maximum drawdown , to decide if AECI performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | 0.75 |
Good predictability
AECI has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AECI time series from 9th of June 2023 to 5th of March 2024 and 5th of March 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AECI price movement. The serial correlation of 0.75 indicates that around 75.0% of current AECI price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.75 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.26 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 296.5 K |
AECI lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AECI stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AECI's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AECI returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AECI has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AECI regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AECI stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AECI stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AECI stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AECI Lagged Returns
When evaluating AECI's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AECI stock have on its future price. AECI autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AECI autocorrelation shows the relationship between AECI stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AECI.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in AECI Stock
AECI financial ratios help investors to determine whether AECI Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AECI with respect to the benefits of owning AECI security.