Agalawatte Plantations (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| AGALN0000 | LKR 37.50 0.10 0.27% |
| Symbol | Agalawatte |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agalawatte Plantations' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agalawatte Plantations is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agalawatte Plantations' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Agalawatte Plantations 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Agalawatte Plantations' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Agalawatte Plantations.
| 10/31/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Agalawatte Plantations on October 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Agalawatte Plantations PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in Agalawatte Plantations over 30 days. More
Agalawatte Plantations Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Agalawatte Plantations' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Agalawatte Plantations PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0526 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.99 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.88 |
Agalawatte Plantations Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Agalawatte Plantations' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Agalawatte Plantations' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Agalawatte Plantations historical prices to predict the future Agalawatte Plantations' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1037 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2594 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.052 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.79) |
Agalawatte Plantations Backtested Returns
Agalawatte Plantations appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Agalawatte Plantations secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.22, which signifies that the company had a 0.22% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Agalawatte Plantations PLC, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Agalawatte Plantations' risk adjusted performance of 0.1037, and Mean Deviation of 1.29 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Agalawatte Plantations holds a performance score of 17. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.28, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Agalawatte Plantations are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Agalawatte Plantations is likely to outperform the market. Please check Agalawatte Plantations' value at risk, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and expected short fall , to make a quick decision on whether Agalawatte Plantations' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.32 |
Poor reverse predictability
Agalawatte Plantations PLC has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Agalawatte Plantations time series from 31st of October 2024 to 15th of November 2024 and 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Agalawatte Plantations price movement. The serial correlation of -0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current Agalawatte Plantations price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.71 |
Agalawatte Plantations lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Agalawatte Plantations stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Agalawatte Plantations' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Agalawatte Plantations returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Agalawatte Plantations has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Agalawatte Plantations regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Agalawatte Plantations stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Agalawatte Plantations stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Agalawatte Plantations stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Agalawatte Plantations Lagged Returns
When evaluating Agalawatte Plantations' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Agalawatte Plantations stock have on its future price. Agalawatte Plantations autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Agalawatte Plantations autocorrelation shows the relationship between Agalawatte Plantations stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Agalawatte Plantations PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Agalawatte Plantations financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agalawatte Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agalawatte with respect to the benefits of owning Agalawatte Plantations security.