Alliance Finance (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| ALLIN0000 | 133.50 4.50 3.49% |
| Symbol | Alliance |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alliance Finance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alliance Finance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alliance Finance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Alliance Finance 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alliance Finance's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alliance Finance.
| 09/03/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alliance Finance on September 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alliance Finance or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alliance Finance over 90 days. More
Alliance Finance Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alliance Finance's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alliance Finance upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.13 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.49 |
Alliance Finance Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alliance Finance's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alliance Finance's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alliance Finance historical prices to predict the future Alliance Finance's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1614 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3747 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0583 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1721 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (14.92) |
Alliance Finance Backtested Returns
Alliance Finance appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Alliance Finance secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.27, which signifies that the company had a 0.27% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Alliance Finance's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.52% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Alliance Finance's Downside Deviation of 1.42, risk adjusted performance of 0.1614, and Mean Deviation of 1.32 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Alliance Finance holds a performance score of 21. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0249, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Alliance Finance are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Alliance Finance is likely to outperform the market. Please check Alliance Finance's downside variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether Alliance Finance's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.72 |
Good predictability
Alliance Finance has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alliance Finance time series from 3rd of September 2024 to 18th of October 2024 and 18th of October 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alliance Finance price movement. The serial correlation of 0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current Alliance Finance price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.64 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 41.19 |
Alliance Finance lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alliance Finance stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alliance Finance's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alliance Finance returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alliance Finance has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alliance Finance regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alliance Finance stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alliance Finance stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alliance Finance stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alliance Finance Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alliance Finance's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alliance Finance stock have on its future price. Alliance Finance autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alliance Finance autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alliance Finance stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alliance Finance.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Alliance Finance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alliance Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alliance with respect to the benefits of owning Alliance Finance security.