Agung Podomoro (Indonesia) Market Value
| APLN Stock | IDR 103.00 3.00 2.83% |
| Symbol | Agung |
Agung Podomoro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Agung Podomoro's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Agung Podomoro.
| 11/13/2024 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Agung Podomoro on November 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Agung Podomoro Land or generate 0.0% return on investment in Agung Podomoro over 30 days. Agung Podomoro is related to or competes with Alam Sutera, Bumi Serpong, Summarecon Agung, Ciputra Development, and Lippo Karawaci. More
Agung Podomoro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Agung Podomoro's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Agung Podomoro Land upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.46 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.0 |
Agung Podomoro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Agung Podomoro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Agung Podomoro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Agung Podomoro historical prices to predict the future Agung Podomoro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.28) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.74) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5621 |
Agung Podomoro Land Backtested Returns
Agung Podomoro Land secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.13, which signifies that the company had a -0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Agung Podomoro Land exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Agung Podomoro's Standard Deviation of 2.77, mean deviation of 2.04, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.62, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Agung Podomoro are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Agung Podomoro is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Agung Podomoro Land has a negative expected return of -0.37%. Please make sure to confirm Agung Podomoro's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if Agung Podomoro Land performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.56 |
Good reverse predictability
Agung Podomoro Land has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Agung Podomoro time series from 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024 and 28th of November 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Agung Podomoro Land price movement. The serial correlation of -0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Agung Podomoro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.82 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.69 |
Agung Podomoro Land lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Agung Podomoro stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Agung Podomoro's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Agung Podomoro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Agung Podomoro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Agung Podomoro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Agung Podomoro stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Agung Podomoro stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Agung Podomoro stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Agung Podomoro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Agung Podomoro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Agung Podomoro stock have on its future price. Agung Podomoro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Agung Podomoro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Agung Podomoro stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Agung Podomoro Land.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Agung Podomoro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agung Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agung with respect to the benefits of owning Agung Podomoro security.