Arafura Resources Stock Market Value
| ARAFF Stock | USD 0.08 0.01 14.29% |
| Symbol | Arafura |
Arafura Resources 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arafura Resources' pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arafura Resources.
| 11/11/2024 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arafura Resources on November 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arafura Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arafura Resources over 30 days. Arafura Resources is related to or competes with IGO, Mineral Res, and Adriatic Metals. Arafura Rare Earths Limited explores for and develops mineral properties in Australia More
Arafura Resources Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arafura Resources' pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arafura Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 41.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (11.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 12.5 |
Arafura Resources Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arafura Resources' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arafura Resources' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arafura Resources historical prices to predict the future Arafura Resources' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.48) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (5.01) |
Arafura Resources Backtested Returns
Arafura Resources secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0745, which signifies that the company had a -0.0745% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Arafura Resources exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Arafura Resources' risk adjusted performance of (0.02), and Mean Deviation of 4.61 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0529, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Arafura Resources' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Arafura Resources is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Arafura Resources has a negative expected return of -0.56%. Please make sure to confirm Arafura Resources' value at risk, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and kurtosis , to decide if Arafura Resources performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.35 |
Poor reverse predictability
Arafura Resources has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arafura Resources time series from 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024 and 26th of November 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arafura Resources price movement. The serial correlation of -0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current Arafura Resources price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.35 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.38 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Arafura Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Arafura Resources pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Arafura Resources' pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Arafura Resources returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Arafura Resources has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Arafura Resources regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Arafura Resources pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Arafura Resources pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Arafura Resources pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Arafura Resources Lagged Returns
When evaluating Arafura Resources' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Arafura Resources pink sheet have on its future price. Arafura Resources autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Arafura Resources autocorrelation shows the relationship between Arafura Resources pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Arafura Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Arafura Pink Sheet
Arafura Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arafura Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arafura with respect to the benefits of owning Arafura Resources security.