Astra Graphia (Indonesia) Market Value
| ASGR Stock | IDR 845.00 5.00 0.59% |
| Symbol | Astra |
Astra Graphia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Astra Graphia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Astra Graphia.
| 10/10/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Astra Graphia on October 10, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Astra Graphia Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Astra Graphia over 420 days. Astra Graphia is related to or competes with Intanwijaya Internasional, Champion Pacific, Mitra Pinasthika, Jakarta Int, Asuransi Harta, Indosterling Technomedia, and Indosat Tbk. More
Astra Graphia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Astra Graphia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Astra Graphia Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.7 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.69) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.79 |
Astra Graphia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Astra Graphia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Astra Graphia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Astra Graphia historical prices to predict the future Astra Graphia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0427 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0698 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.24) |
Astra Graphia Tbk Backtested Returns
As of now, Astra Stock is very steady. Astra Graphia Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0713, which signifies that the company had a 0.0713% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Astra Graphia Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Astra Graphia's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0427, downside deviation of 1.07, and Mean Deviation of 0.8421 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0791%. Astra Graphia has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.19, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Astra Graphia are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Astra Graphia is likely to outperform the market. Astra Graphia Tbk right now shows a risk of 1.11%. Please confirm Astra Graphia Tbk total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Astra Graphia Tbk will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.74 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Astra Graphia Tbk has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Astra Graphia time series from 10th of October 2023 to 7th of May 2024 and 7th of May 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Astra Graphia Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Astra Graphia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.66 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2852.79 |
Astra Graphia Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Astra Graphia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Astra Graphia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Astra Graphia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Astra Graphia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Astra Graphia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Astra Graphia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Astra Graphia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Astra Graphia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Astra Graphia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Astra Graphia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Astra Graphia stock have on its future price. Astra Graphia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Astra Graphia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Astra Graphia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Astra Graphia Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Astra Graphia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra Graphia security.