Aegis Value Fund Market Value
| AVALX Fund | USD 40.87 0.24 0.59% |
| Symbol | Aegis |
Aegis Value 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aegis Value's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aegis Value.
| 08/31/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aegis Value on August 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aegis Value Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aegis Value over 90 days. Aegis Value is related to or competes with Arrow Managed, Nationwide Inflation-protec, Asg Managed, Guidepath(r) Managed, and Blackrock Inflation. The fund invests primarily in common stocks that the funds investment advisor believes are significantly undervalued rel... More
Aegis Value Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aegis Value's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aegis Value Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9116 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.22 |
Aegis Value Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aegis Value's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aegis Value's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aegis Value historical prices to predict the future Aegis Value's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0918 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1068 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.1 |
Aegis Value Fund Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Aegis Mutual Fund to be very steady. Aegis Value Fund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the fund had a 0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Aegis Value Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Aegis Value's risk adjusted performance of 0.0918, and Mean Deviation of 0.7815 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0358, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Aegis Value's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Aegis Value is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.28 |
Weak reverse predictability
Aegis Value Fund has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aegis Value time series from 31st of August 2024 to 15th of October 2024 and 15th of October 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aegis Value Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current Aegis Value price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.2 |
Aegis Value Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aegis Value mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aegis Value's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aegis Value returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aegis Value has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aegis Value regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aegis Value mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aegis Value mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aegis Value mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aegis Value Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aegis Value's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aegis Value mutual fund have on its future price. Aegis Value autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aegis Value autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aegis Value mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aegis Value Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Aegis Mutual Fund
Aegis Value financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aegis Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aegis with respect to the benefits of owning Aegis Value security.
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