Avi (South Africa) Market Value
| AVI Stock | 10,988 112.00 1.01% |
| Symbol | Avi |
Avi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Avi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Avi.
| 04/06/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Avi on April 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Avi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Avi over 240 days. Avi is related to or competes with Ascendis Health, Astoria Investments, HomeChoice Investments, E Media, Capitec Bank, and Harmony Gold. More
Avi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Avi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Avi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.83) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.14 |
Avi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Avi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Avi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Avi historical prices to predict the future Avi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.085 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1372 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.001) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.47) |
Avi Backtested Returns
At this point, Avi is very steady. Avi secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which signifies that the company had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Avi, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Avi's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.085, mean deviation of 0.979, and Downside Deviation of 1.37 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Avi has a performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0856, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Avi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Avi is likely to outperform the market. Avi right now shows a risk of 1.28%. Please confirm Avi coefficient of variation, sortino ratio, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Avi will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.66 |
Good predictability
Avi has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Avi time series from 6th of April 2024 to 4th of August 2024 and 4th of August 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Avi price movement. The serial correlation of 0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current Avi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 231.4 K |
Avi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Avi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Avi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Avi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Avi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Avi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Avi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Avi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Avi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Avi Lagged Returns
When evaluating Avi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Avi stock have on its future price. Avi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Avi autocorrelation shows the relationship between Avi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Avi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Avi Stock
Avi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Avi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Avi with respect to the benefits of owning Avi security.