Birla Carbon (Thailand) Market Value
| BCT Stock | THB 67.00 0.75 1.13% |
| Symbol | Birla |
Birla Carbon 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Birla Carbon's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Birla Carbon.
| 12/19/2023 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Birla Carbon on December 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Birla Carbon Public or generate 0.0% return on investment in Birla Carbon over 360 days. Birla Carbon is related to or competes with Indorama Ventures, Gratitude Infinite, Bangkok Life, AAPICO Hitech, and Asian Sea. Birla Carbon Public Company Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of carbon black for rubber and specialty applica... More
Birla Carbon Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Birla Carbon's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Birla Carbon Public upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.14) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.75 |
Birla Carbon Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Birla Carbon's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Birla Carbon's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Birla Carbon historical prices to predict the future Birla Carbon's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.36) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.76) |
Birla Carbon Public Backtested Returns
Birla Carbon Public secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.082, which signifies that the company had a -0.082% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Birla Carbon Public exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Birla Carbon's Standard Deviation of 1.62, risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Mean Deviation of 0.971 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.17, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Birla Carbon's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Birla Carbon is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Birla Carbon Public has a negative expected return of -0.14%. Please make sure to confirm Birla Carbon's value at risk, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Birla Carbon Public performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.04 |
Virtually no predictability
Birla Carbon Public has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Birla Carbon time series from 19th of December 2023 to 16th of June 2024 and 16th of June 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Birla Carbon Public price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Birla Carbon price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 48.46 |
Birla Carbon Public lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Birla Carbon stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Birla Carbon's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Birla Carbon returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Birla Carbon has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Birla Carbon regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Birla Carbon stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Birla Carbon stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Birla Carbon stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Birla Carbon Lagged Returns
When evaluating Birla Carbon's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Birla Carbon stock have on its future price. Birla Carbon autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Birla Carbon autocorrelation shows the relationship between Birla Carbon stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Birla Carbon Public.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Birla Carbon financial ratios help investors to determine whether Birla Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Birla with respect to the benefits of owning Birla Carbon security.