Blue Bird (Indonesia) Market Value
| BIRD Stock | IDR 1,730 95.00 5.21% |
| Symbol | Blue |
Blue Bird 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Blue Bird's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Blue Bird.
| 11/15/2024 |
| 12/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Blue Bird on November 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Blue Bird Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Blue Bird over 30 days. Blue Bird is related to or competes with PT Indonesia, Surya Toto, Mitra Pinasthika, Integra Indocabinet, Multistrada Arah, Bhuwanatala Indah, and Mitrabara Adiperdana. More
Blue Bird Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Blue Bird's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Blue Bird Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.29 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.93) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.99 |
Blue Bird Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Blue Bird's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Blue Bird's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Blue Bird historical prices to predict the future Blue Bird's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.36) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3174 |
Blue Bird Tbk Backtested Returns
Blue Bird Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0465, which signifies that the company had a -0.0465% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Blue Bird Tbk exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Blue Bird's Mean Deviation of 1.43, standard deviation of 2.05, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.33, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Blue Bird are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Blue Bird is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Blue Bird Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.0963%. Please make sure to confirm Blue Bird's maximum drawdown, potential upside, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Blue Bird Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.92 |
Excellent predictability
Blue Bird Tbk has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Blue Bird time series from 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024 and 30th of November 2024 to 15th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Blue Bird Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.92 indicates that approximately 92.0% of current Blue Bird price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.92 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4627.27 |
Blue Bird Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Blue Bird stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Blue Bird's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Blue Bird returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Blue Bird has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Blue Bird regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Blue Bird stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Blue Bird stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Blue Bird stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Blue Bird Lagged Returns
When evaluating Blue Bird's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Blue Bird stock have on its future price. Blue Bird autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Blue Bird autocorrelation shows the relationship between Blue Bird stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Blue Bird Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Blue Bird financial ratios help investors to determine whether Blue Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Blue with respect to the benefits of owning Blue Bird security.