AVIS BUDGET (Germany) Market Value
| CUCA Stock | EUR 95.18 6.32 6.23% |
| Symbol | AVIS |
AVIS BUDGET 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AVIS BUDGET's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AVIS BUDGET.
| 11/04/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AVIS BUDGET on November 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AVIS BUDGET GROUP or generate 0.0% return on investment in AVIS BUDGET over 30 days. AVIS BUDGET is related to or competes with TOTAL GABON, and Walgreens Boots. More
AVIS BUDGET Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AVIS BUDGET's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AVIS BUDGET GROUP upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.38 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1138 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 24.55 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.05) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.65 |
AVIS BUDGET Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AVIS BUDGET's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AVIS BUDGET's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AVIS BUDGET historical prices to predict the future AVIS BUDGET's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1156 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5919 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0127 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1411 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (5.45) |
AVIS BUDGET GROUP Backtested Returns
AVIS BUDGET appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. AVIS BUDGET GROUP secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.17, which signifies that the company had a 0.17% return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. By reviewing AVIS BUDGET's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.68% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of AVIS BUDGET's Mean Deviation of 3.03, semi deviation of 3.04, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1156 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, AVIS BUDGET holds a performance score of 13. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.11, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AVIS BUDGET are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AVIS BUDGET is likely to outperform the market. Please check AVIS BUDGET's standard deviation, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether AVIS BUDGET's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.25 |
Poor predictability
AVIS BUDGET GROUP has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AVIS BUDGET time series from 4th of November 2024 to 19th of November 2024 and 19th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AVIS BUDGET GROUP price movement. The serial correlation of 0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current AVIS BUDGET price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.25 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 16.08 |
AVIS BUDGET GROUP lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AVIS BUDGET stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AVIS BUDGET's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AVIS BUDGET returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AVIS BUDGET has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AVIS BUDGET regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AVIS BUDGET stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AVIS BUDGET stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AVIS BUDGET stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AVIS BUDGET Lagged Returns
When evaluating AVIS BUDGET's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AVIS BUDGET stock have on its future price. AVIS BUDGET autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AVIS BUDGET autocorrelation shows the relationship between AVIS BUDGET stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AVIS BUDGET GROUP.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for AVIS Stock Analysis
When running AVIS BUDGET's price analysis, check to measure AVIS BUDGET's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AVIS BUDGET is operating at the current time. Most of AVIS BUDGET's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AVIS BUDGET's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AVIS BUDGET's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AVIS BUDGET to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.