Dollar Tree (Mexico) Market Value
| DLTR Stock | MXN 1,453 103.00 7.63% |
| Symbol | Dollar |
Dollar Tree 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Dollar Tree's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Dollar Tree.
| 10/25/2024 |
| 12/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Dollar Tree on October 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dollar Tree or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dollar Tree over 60 days. Dollar Tree is related to or competes with Target, Burlington Stores. It operates through two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar More
Dollar Tree Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Dollar Tree's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Dollar Tree upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0391 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.37) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.0 |
Dollar Tree Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Dollar Tree's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Dollar Tree's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Dollar Tree historical prices to predict the future Dollar Tree's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0485 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1045 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.047 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0225 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2028 |
Dollar Tree Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Dollar Stock to be very steady. Dollar Tree secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0523, which denotes the company had a 0.0523% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Dollar Tree, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Dollar Tree's Coefficient Of Variation of 1896.78, downside deviation of 4.22, and Mean Deviation of 1.27 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. Dollar Tree has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.58, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Dollar Tree's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Dollar Tree is expected to be smaller as well. Dollar Tree right now shows a risk of 2.22%. Please confirm Dollar Tree jensen alpha, sortino ratio, and the relationship between the information ratio and total risk alpha , to decide if Dollar Tree will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.03 |
Virtually no predictability
Dollar Tree has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dollar Tree time series from 25th of October 2024 to 24th of November 2024 and 24th of November 2024 to 24th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dollar Tree price movement. The serial correlation of 0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current Dollar Tree price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.26 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2772.84 |
Dollar Tree lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Dollar Tree stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Dollar Tree's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Dollar Tree returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Dollar Tree has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Dollar Tree regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Dollar Tree stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Dollar Tree stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Dollar Tree stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Dollar Tree Lagged Returns
When evaluating Dollar Tree's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Dollar Tree stock have on its future price. Dollar Tree autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Dollar Tree autocorrelation shows the relationship between Dollar Tree stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Dollar Tree.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Dollar Stock Analysis
When running Dollar Tree's price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.