Dreyfus Municipal Bond Fund Market Value
| DMBCX Fund | USD 12.35 0.03 0.24% |
| Symbol | DREYFUS |
Dreyfus Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Dreyfus Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Dreyfus Municipal.
| 12/11/2022 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Dreyfus Municipal on December 11, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Dreyfus Municipal Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Dreyfus Municipal over 720 days. Dreyfus Municipal is related to or competes with Dreyfusstandish Global, Dreyfusstandish Global, Dreyfus High, Dreyfus High, Dreyfus High, Dreyfus New, and Dreyfus International. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus any borrowings for investment purposes, in municip... More
Dreyfus Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Dreyfus Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Dreyfus Municipal Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.3942 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.47) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.48 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3265 |
Dreyfus Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Dreyfus Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Dreyfus Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Dreyfus Municipal historical prices to predict the future Dreyfus Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.041 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0229 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.30) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.10) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dreyfus Municipal Bond Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider DREYFUS Mutual Fund to be very steady. Dreyfus Municipal Bond secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0621, which denotes the fund had a 0.0621% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Dreyfus Municipal Bond, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Dreyfus Municipal's Mean Deviation of 0.1497, downside deviation of 0.3942, and Semi Deviation of 0.2019 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0156%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.1, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Dreyfus Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Dreyfus Municipal is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.45 |
Modest reverse predictability
Dreyfus Municipal Bond has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Dreyfus Municipal time series from 11th of December 2022 to 6th of December 2023 and 6th of December 2023 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Dreyfus Municipal Bond price movement. The serial correlation of -0.45 indicates that just about 45.0% of current Dreyfus Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.45 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Dreyfus Municipal Bond lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Dreyfus Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Dreyfus Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Dreyfus Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Dreyfus Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Dreyfus Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Dreyfus Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Dreyfus Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Dreyfus Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Dreyfus Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Dreyfus Municipal Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in DREYFUS Mutual Fund
Dreyfus Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether DREYFUS Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in DREYFUS with respect to the benefits of owning Dreyfus Municipal security.
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum |