Polkadot Market Value
| DOT Crypto | USD 8.95 0.08 0.89% |
| Symbol | Polkadot |
Polkadot 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polkadot's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polkadot.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Polkadot on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polkadot or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polkadot over 180 days. Polkadot is related to or competes with XRP, Solana, Staked Ether, Sui, Toncoin, Worldcoin, and Stellar. Polkadot is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.
Polkadot Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polkadot's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polkadot upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.32 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.196 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 33.86 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.73) | |||
| Potential Upside | 11.78 |
Polkadot Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polkadot's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polkadot's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polkadot historical prices to predict the future Polkadot's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1772 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.09 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2907 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.255 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.13 |
Polkadot Backtested Returns
Polkadot is unusually risky given 3 months investment horizon. Polkadot maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.24, which implies digital coin had a 0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate and analyze data for twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.37% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Polkadot Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1772, coefficient of variation of 453.62, and Semi Deviation of 3.37 to evaluate coin specific risk that cannot be diversified away. The crypto holds a Beta of 1.09, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Polkadot returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Polkadot is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.63 |
Very good reverse predictability
Polkadot has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polkadot time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 1st of September 2024 and 1st of September 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polkadot price movement. The serial correlation of -0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Polkadot price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.76 |
Polkadot lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Polkadot crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polkadot's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polkadot returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polkadot has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the crypto coin is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Polkadot regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polkadot crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polkadot crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polkadot crypto coin over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Polkadot Lagged Returns
When evaluating Polkadot's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polkadot crypto coin have on its future price. Polkadot autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polkadot autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polkadot crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polkadot.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Polkadot offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Polkadot's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Polkadot Crypto.Check out Polkadot Correlation, Polkadot Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Polkadot. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Polkadot technical crypto coin analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, crypto market cycles, or different charting patterns.