Ercros (Spain) Market Value
| ECR Stock | EUR 3.53 0.02 0.56% |
| Symbol | Ercros |
Ercros 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ercros' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ercros.
| 11/11/2024 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ercros on November 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ercros or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ercros over 30 days. Ercros is related to or competes with Amper SA, ENCE Energa, Faes Farma, and Tubacex SA. Ercros, S.A. manufactures and sells basic chemicals, intermediate chemicals, and pharmaceuticals in Spain More
Ercros Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ercros' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ercros upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.26) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.36) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8499 |
Ercros Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ercros' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ercros' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ercros historical prices to predict the future Ercros' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.16) |
Ercros Backtested Returns
Ercros secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.1, which denotes the company had a -0.1% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Ercros exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Ercros' Coefficient Of Variation of (913.91), mean deviation of 0.5365, and Standard Deviation of 0.8074 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0848, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ercros' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ercros is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Ercros has a negative expected return of -0.0828%. Please make sure to confirm Ercros' coefficient of variation, total risk alpha, skewness, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Ercros performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.36 |
Poor reverse predictability
Ercros has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ercros time series from 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024 and 26th of November 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ercros price movement. The serial correlation of -0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current Ercros price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Ercros lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ercros stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ercros' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ercros returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ercros has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ercros regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ercros stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ercros stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ercros stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ercros Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ercros' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ercros stock have on its future price. Ercros autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ercros autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ercros stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ercros.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ercros Stock
Ercros financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ercros Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ercros with respect to the benefits of owning Ercros security.