Evotec SE (Germany) Market Value
| EVT Stock | 8.54 0.13 1.55% |
| Symbol | Evotec |
Evotec SE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Evotec SE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Evotec SE.
| 09/30/2024 |
| 12/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Evotec SE on September 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Evotec SE or generate 0.0% return on investment in Evotec SE over 90 days. Evotec SE is related to or competes with Merck KGaA, Haleon PLC, LIVZON PHARMAC, SIMCERE PHARMAC, CanSino Biologics, Dermapharm Holding, and ANI Pharmaceuticals. More
Evotec SE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Evotec SE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Evotec SE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.67 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1176 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 36.91 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.76 |
Evotec SE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Evotec SE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Evotec SE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Evotec SE historical prices to predict the future Evotec SE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1068 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7006 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.5501 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1219 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.21 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evotec SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evotec SE Backtested Returns
Evotec SE appears to be moderately volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Evotec SE secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1, which denotes the company had a 0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing Evotec SE's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.63% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Evotec SE's Downside Deviation of 5.67, coefficient of variation of 812.29, and Mean Deviation of 3.85 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Evotec SE holds a performance score of 8. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.59, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Evotec SE's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Evotec SE is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Evotec SE's semi variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Evotec SE's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.42 |
Modest reverse predictability
Evotec SE has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Evotec SE time series from 30th of September 2024 to 14th of November 2024 and 14th of November 2024 to 29th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Evotec SE price movement. The serial correlation of -0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Evotec SE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.46 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.34 |
Evotec SE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Evotec SE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Evotec SE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Evotec SE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Evotec SE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Evotec SE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Evotec SE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Evotec SE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Evotec SE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Evotec SE Lagged Returns
When evaluating Evotec SE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Evotec SE stock have on its future price. Evotec SE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Evotec SE autocorrelation shows the relationship between Evotec SE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Evotec SE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Evotec Stock Analysis
When running Evotec SE's price analysis, check to measure Evotec SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evotec SE is operating at the current time. Most of Evotec SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evotec SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evotec SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evotec SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.