American Funds Retirement Fund Market Value
| FGFWX Fund | USD 13.89 0.09 0.65% |
| Symbol | American |
American Funds 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Funds' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Funds.
| 11/20/2024 |
| 12/20/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Funds on November 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Funds Retirement or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Funds over 30 days. American Funds is related to or competes with Arrow Managed, Ab Bond, American Funds, Aqr Managed, Loomis Sayles, and Fidelity Sai. The advisor will attempt to achieve its investment objectives by investing in a mix of American Funds in varying combina... More
American Funds Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Funds' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Funds Retirement upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.64) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4982 |
American Funds Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Funds' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Funds' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Funds historical prices to predict the future American Funds' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.23) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Funds Retirement Backtested Returns
American Funds Retirement secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.061, which signifies that the fund had a -0.061% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. American Funds Retirement exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm American Funds' mean deviation of 0.3085, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0722, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, American Funds' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Funds is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.62 |
Very good reverse predictability
American Funds Retirement has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Funds time series from 20th of November 2024 to 5th of December 2024 and 5th of December 2024 to 20th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Funds Retirement price movement. The serial correlation of -0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current American Funds price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.72 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
American Funds Retirement lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Funds mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Funds' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Funds returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Funds has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Funds regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Funds mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Funds mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Funds mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Funds Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Funds' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Funds mutual fund have on its future price. American Funds autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Funds autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Funds mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Funds Retirement.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in American Mutual Fund
American Funds financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Funds security.
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