Federal Mogul (Turkey) Market Value
| FMIZP Stock | TRY 325.00 6.50 2.04% |
| Symbol | Federal |
Federal Mogul 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Federal Mogul's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Federal Mogul.
| 09/22/2024 |
| 12/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Federal Mogul on September 22, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Federal Mogul Izmit or generate 0.0% return on investment in Federal Mogul over 90 days. Federal Mogul is related to or competes with Gentas Genel, Bms Birlesik, Silverline Endustri, and Trabzonspor Sportif. Federal-Mogul Izmit Piston Ve Pim retim Tesisleri A.S More
Federal Mogul Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Federal Mogul's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Federal Mogul Izmit upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.74 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.43 |
Federal Mogul Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federal Mogul's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Federal Mogul's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Federal Mogul historical prices to predict the future Federal Mogul's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.48) |
Federal Mogul Izmit Backtested Returns
Federal Mogul Izmit secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.021, which denotes the company had a -0.021% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Federal Mogul Izmit exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Federal Mogul's Standard Deviation of 2.58, variance of 6.63, and Mean Deviation of 1.86 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.12, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Federal Mogul's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Federal Mogul is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Federal Mogul Izmit has a negative expected return of -0.0521%. Please make sure to confirm Federal Mogul's treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and price action indicator , to decide if Federal Mogul Izmit performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
Federal Mogul Izmit has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Federal Mogul time series from 22nd of September 2024 to 6th of November 2024 and 6th of November 2024 to 21st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Federal Mogul Izmit price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Federal Mogul price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.0 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 43.05 |
Federal Mogul Izmit lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Federal Mogul stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Federal Mogul's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Federal Mogul returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Federal Mogul has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Federal Mogul regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Federal Mogul stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Federal Mogul stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Federal Mogul stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Federal Mogul Lagged Returns
When evaluating Federal Mogul's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Federal Mogul stock have on its future price. Federal Mogul autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Federal Mogul autocorrelation shows the relationship between Federal Mogul stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Federal Mogul Izmit.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Federal Stock
Federal Mogul financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federal with respect to the benefits of owning Federal Mogul security.