Gobarto SA (Poland) Market Value
| GOB Stock | 29.20 1.70 5.50% |
| Symbol | Gobarto |
Gobarto SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gobarto SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gobarto SA.
| 09/13/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gobarto SA on September 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gobarto SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gobarto SA over 90 days.
Gobarto SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gobarto SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gobarto SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.17 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.69) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.0 |
Gobarto SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gobarto SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gobarto SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gobarto SA historical prices to predict the future Gobarto SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.38) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.68) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.22) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gobarto SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gobarto SA Backtested Returns
Gobarto SA holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.1, which attests that the entity had a -0.1% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Gobarto SA exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gobarto SA's risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.21) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.14, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Gobarto SA returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Gobarto SA is expected to follow. At this point, Gobarto SA has a negative expected return of -0.3%. Please make sure to check out Gobarto SA's jensen alpha, accumulation distribution, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and day typical price , to decide if Gobarto SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.51 |
Modest predictability
Gobarto SA has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gobarto SA time series from 13th of September 2024 to 28th of October 2024 and 28th of October 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gobarto SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current Gobarto SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.2 |
Gobarto SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gobarto SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gobarto SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gobarto SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gobarto SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gobarto SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gobarto SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gobarto SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gobarto SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gobarto SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gobarto SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gobarto SA stock have on its future price. Gobarto SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gobarto SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gobarto SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gobarto SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Gobarto SA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Gobarto SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Gobarto SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Gobarto Stock
Moving against Gobarto Stock
| 0.83 | CEZ | CEZ as | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | DNP | Dino Polska SA | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | SAN | Banco Santander SA | PairCorr |
| 0.32 | UCG | UniCredit SpA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Gobarto SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Gobarto SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Gobarto SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Gobarto SA to buy it.
The correlation of Gobarto SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Gobarto SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Gobarto SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Gobarto SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Gobarto Stock Analysis
When running Gobarto SA's price analysis, check to measure Gobarto SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gobarto SA is operating at the current time. Most of Gobarto SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gobarto SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gobarto SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gobarto SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.