SPDR Gold (Germany) Market Value
| GQ9 Etf | EUR 231.59 0.34 0.15% |
| Symbol | SPDR |
SPDR Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to SPDR Gold's etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of SPDR Gold.
| 12/09/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in SPDR Gold on December 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding SPDR Gold Shares or generate 0.0% return on investment in SPDR Gold over 360 days. SPDR Gold is related to or competes with SPDR Barclays, and SPDR SP. The investment seeks to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the expenses of the Trusts operations More
SPDR Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure SPDR Gold's etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess SPDR Gold Shares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0536 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.23) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.64 |
SPDR Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for SPDR Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as SPDR Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use SPDR Gold historical prices to predict the future SPDR Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1444 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1874 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0246 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0499 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.81) |
SPDR Gold Shares Backtested Returns
Currently, SPDR Gold Shares is very steady. SPDR Gold Shares owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.2, which indicates the etf had a 0.2% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for SPDR Gold Shares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the etf. Please validate SPDR Gold's risk adjusted performance of 0.1444, and Coefficient Of Variation of 535.72 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. The entity has a beta of -0.2, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning SPDR Gold are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, SPDR Gold is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.92 |
Excellent predictability
SPDR Gold Shares has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between SPDR Gold time series from 9th of December 2023 to 6th of June 2024 and 6th of June 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of SPDR Gold Shares price movement. The serial correlation of 0.92 indicates that approximately 92.0% of current SPDR Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.92 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.87 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 141.07 |
SPDR Gold Shares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is SPDR Gold etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting SPDR Gold's etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of SPDR Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that SPDR Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
SPDR Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If SPDR Gold etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if SPDR Gold etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in SPDR Gold etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
SPDR Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating SPDR Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of SPDR Gold etf have on its future price. SPDR Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, SPDR Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between SPDR Gold etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in SPDR Gold Shares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in SPDR Etf
When determining whether SPDR Gold Shares is a strong investment it is important to analyze SPDR Gold's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact SPDR Gold's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding SPDR Etf, refer to the following important reports:Check out SPDR Gold Correlation, SPDR Gold Volatility and SPDR Gold Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on SPDR Gold. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
SPDR Gold technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.