Holmen AB (Germany) Market Value
| HL9C Stock | EUR 36.26 0.20 0.55% |
| Symbol | Holmen |
Holmen AB 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Holmen AB's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Holmen AB.
| 11/18/2024 |
| 12/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Holmen AB on November 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Holmen AB or generate 0.0% return on investment in Holmen AB over 30 days. Holmen AB is related to or competes with Stora Enso, Superior Plus, Origin Agritech, INTUITIVE SURGICAL, Intel, Reliance Steel, and Rolls Royce. Holmen Aktiebolag manufactures and sells papers, paperboards, and wood products worldwide More
Holmen AB Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Holmen AB's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Holmen AB upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.90) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.08 |
Holmen AB Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Holmen AB's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Holmen AB's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Holmen AB historical prices to predict the future Holmen AB's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2051 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Holmen AB's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Holmen AB Backtested Returns
Holmen AB holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0526, which attests that the entity had a -0.0526% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Holmen AB exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Holmen AB's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2151, standard deviation of 1.21, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.19, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Holmen AB are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Holmen AB is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Holmen AB has a negative expected return of -0.0649%. Please make sure to check out Holmen AB's information ratio, total risk alpha, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if Holmen AB performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.17 |
Very weak predictability
Holmen AB has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Holmen AB time series from 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024 and 3rd of December 2024 to 18th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Holmen AB price movement. The serial correlation of 0.17 indicates that over 17.0% of current Holmen AB price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.17 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
Holmen AB lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Holmen AB stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Holmen AB's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Holmen AB returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Holmen AB has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Holmen AB regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Holmen AB stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Holmen AB stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Holmen AB stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Holmen AB Lagged Returns
When evaluating Holmen AB's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Holmen AB stock have on its future price. Holmen AB autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Holmen AB autocorrelation shows the relationship between Holmen AB stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Holmen AB.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Holmen Stock
Holmen AB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Holmen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Holmen with respect to the benefits of owning Holmen AB security.