Intrepid Capital Fund Market Value
| ICMVX Fund | USD 13.11 0.01 0.08% |
| Symbol | Intrepid |
Intrepid Capital 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Intrepid Capital's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Intrepid Capital.
| 08/19/2023 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Intrepid Capital on August 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Intrepid Capital Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Intrepid Capital over 480 days. Intrepid Capital is related to or competes with Strategic Allocation, Strategic Allocation, Value Fund, International Growth, and Balanced Fund. The fund invests primarily in a diversified portfolio of undervalued small and medium capitalization equity securities a... More
Intrepid Capital Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Intrepid Capital's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Intrepid Capital Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.4868 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0678 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.05 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.72) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.0 |
Intrepid Capital Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Intrepid Capital's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Intrepid Capital's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Intrepid Capital historical prices to predict the future Intrepid Capital's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.212 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1447 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0655 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0752 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.72 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intrepid Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrepid Capital Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Intrepid Mutual Fund to be very steady. Intrepid Capital holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.27, which attests that the entity had a 0.27% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for Intrepid Capital, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Intrepid Capital's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 2.73, coefficient of variation of 335.35, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.212 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0555, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Intrepid Capital's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Intrepid Capital is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.85 |
Very good predictability
Intrepid Capital Fund has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Intrepid Capital time series from 19th of August 2023 to 15th of April 2024 and 15th of April 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Intrepid Capital price movement. The serial correlation of 0.85 indicates that around 85.0% of current Intrepid Capital price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.85 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.84 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.19 |
Intrepid Capital lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Intrepid Capital mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Intrepid Capital's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Intrepid Capital returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Intrepid Capital has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Intrepid Capital regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Intrepid Capital mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Intrepid Capital mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Intrepid Capital mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Intrepid Capital Lagged Returns
When evaluating Intrepid Capital's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Intrepid Capital mutual fund have on its future price. Intrepid Capital autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Intrepid Capital autocorrelation shows the relationship between Intrepid Capital mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Intrepid Capital Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Intrepid Mutual Fund
Intrepid Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Intrepid Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Intrepid with respect to the benefits of owning Intrepid Capital security.
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