PT Jhonlin (Indonesia) Market Value
| JARR Stock | 340.00 2.00 0.59% |
| Symbol | JARR |
PT Jhonlin 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Jhonlin's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Jhonlin.
| 11/12/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Jhonlin on November 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Jhonlin Agro or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Jhonlin over 30 days. PT Jhonlin is related to or competes with Mahkota Group, Palma Serasih, Cisadane Sawit, Diamond Food, and Saraswanti Anugerah. More
PT Jhonlin Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Jhonlin's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Jhonlin Agro upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.86 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0615 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 40.57 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.95) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.89 |
PT Jhonlin Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Jhonlin's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Jhonlin's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Jhonlin historical prices to predict the future PT Jhonlin's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0688 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5181 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.44) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0727 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.06) |
PT Jhonlin Agro Backtested Returns
PT Jhonlin appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. PT Jhonlin Agro retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0848, which implies the firm had a 0.0848% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. By inspecting PT Jhonlin's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.5% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate PT Jhonlin's market risk adjusted performance of (1.05), and Standard Deviation of 5.74 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, PT Jhonlin holds a performance score of 6. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.44, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning PT Jhonlin are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, PT Jhonlin is likely to outperform the market. Please check PT Jhonlin's downside deviation, information ratio, and the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to make a quick decision on whether PT Jhonlin's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.75 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
PT Jhonlin Agro has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Jhonlin time series from 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024 and 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Jhonlin Agro price movement. The serial correlation of -0.75 indicates that around 75.0% of current PT Jhonlin price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.75 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.76 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 948.43 |
PT Jhonlin Agro lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Jhonlin stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Jhonlin's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Jhonlin returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Jhonlin has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Jhonlin regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Jhonlin stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Jhonlin stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Jhonlin stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Jhonlin Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Jhonlin's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Jhonlin stock have on its future price. PT Jhonlin autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Jhonlin autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Jhonlin stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Jhonlin Agro.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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PT Jhonlin financial ratios help investors to determine whether JARR Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in JARR with respect to the benefits of owning PT Jhonlin security.