Armada Berjaya (Indonesia) Market Value
| JAYA Stock | 94.00 1.00 1.05% |
| Symbol | Armada |
Armada Berjaya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Armada Berjaya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Armada Berjaya.
| 11/14/2024 |
| 12/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Armada Berjaya on November 14, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Armada Berjaya Trans or generate 0.0% return on investment in Armada Berjaya over 30 days. Armada Berjaya is related to or competes with PT Trimuda, Yelooo Integra, Transcoal Pacific, and Weha Transportasi. More
Armada Berjaya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Armada Berjaya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Armada Berjaya Trans upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.01 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.78 |
Armada Berjaya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Armada Berjaya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Armada Berjaya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Armada Berjaya historical prices to predict the future Armada Berjaya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.47) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.58 |
Armada Berjaya Trans Backtested Returns
Armada Berjaya Trans secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.1, which signifies that the company had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Armada Berjaya Trans exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Armada Berjaya's Standard Deviation of 2.21, mean deviation of 1.55, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.12, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Armada Berjaya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Armada Berjaya is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Armada Berjaya Trans has a negative expected return of -0.22%. Please make sure to confirm Armada Berjaya's total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Armada Berjaya Trans performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.09 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Armada Berjaya Trans has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Armada Berjaya time series from 14th of November 2024 to 29th of November 2024 and 29th of November 2024 to 14th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Armada Berjaya Trans price movement. The serial correlation of -0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current Armada Berjaya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.07 |
Armada Berjaya Trans lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Armada Berjaya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Armada Berjaya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Armada Berjaya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Armada Berjaya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Armada Berjaya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Armada Berjaya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Armada Berjaya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Armada Berjaya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Armada Berjaya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Armada Berjaya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Armada Berjaya stock have on its future price. Armada Berjaya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Armada Berjaya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Armada Berjaya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Armada Berjaya Trans.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Armada Berjaya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Armada Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Armada with respect to the benefits of owning Armada Berjaya security.