LGI Homes (Germany) Market Value
| LG1 Stock | 103.00 1.00 0.96% |
| Symbol | LGI |
LGI Homes 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to LGI Homes' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of LGI Homes.
| 11/03/2024 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in LGI Homes on November 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding LGI Homes or generate 0.0% return on investment in LGI Homes over 30 days. LGI Homes is related to or competes with Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, Apple, and Microsoft. More
LGI Homes Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure LGI Homes' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess LGI Homes upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.0001) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.3 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.64) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.03 |
LGI Homes Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for LGI Homes' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as LGI Homes' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use LGI Homes historical prices to predict the future LGI Homes' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0435 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0486 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.0001) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1992 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LGI Homes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LGI Homes Backtested Returns
Currently, LGI Homes is very steady. LGI Homes has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0701, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0701% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for LGI Homes, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify LGI Homes' risk adjusted performance of 0.0435, and Mean Deviation of 1.78 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.18%. LGI Homes has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.57, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, LGI Homes' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding LGI Homes is expected to be smaller as well. LGI Homes now secures a risk of 2.59%. Please verify LGI Homes standard deviation, treynor ratio, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and value at risk , to decide if LGI Homes will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.03 |
Virtually no predictability
LGI Homes has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between LGI Homes time series from 3rd of November 2024 to 18th of November 2024 and 18th of November 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of LGI Homes price movement. The serial correlation of 0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current LGI Homes price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.96 |
LGI Homes lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is LGI Homes stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting LGI Homes' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of LGI Homes returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that LGI Homes has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
LGI Homes regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If LGI Homes stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if LGI Homes stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in LGI Homes stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
LGI Homes Lagged Returns
When evaluating LGI Homes' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of LGI Homes stock have on its future price. LGI Homes autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, LGI Homes autocorrelation shows the relationship between LGI Homes stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in LGI Homes.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for LGI Stock Analysis
When running LGI Homes' price analysis, check to measure LGI Homes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LGI Homes is operating at the current time. Most of LGI Homes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LGI Homes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LGI Homes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LGI Homes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.