Modern Internasional (Indonesia) Market Value
| MDRN Stock | IDR 7.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | Modern |
Modern Internasional 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Modern Internasional's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Modern Internasional.
| 11/13/2024 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Modern Internasional on November 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Modern Internasional Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Modern Internasional over 30 days. Modern Internasional is related to or competes with Ashmore Asset, Communication Cable, Lotte Chemical, Humpuss Intermoda, Metrodata Electronics, and Optima Prima. PT Modern Internasional Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the trading business in Indonesia More
Modern Internasional Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Modern Internasional's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Modern Internasional Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 13.47 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 30.95 | |||
| Value At Risk | (12.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 14.29 |
Modern Internasional Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Modern Internasional's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Modern Internasional's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Modern Internasional historical prices to predict the future Modern Internasional's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0183 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.0009) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0712 |
Modern Internasional Tbk Backtested Returns
Modern Internasional appears to be risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Modern Internasional Tbk has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0387, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0387% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-five technical indicators for Modern Internasional, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Modern Internasional's Mean Deviation of 4.44, risk adjusted performance of 0.0183, and Downside Deviation of 13.47 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Modern Internasional holds a performance score of 3. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.25, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Modern Internasional will likely underperform. Please check Modern Internasional's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and information ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Modern Internasional's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
Modern Internasional Tbk has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Modern Internasional time series from 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024 and 28th of November 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Modern Internasional Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Modern Internasional price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.15 |
Modern Internasional Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Modern Internasional stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Modern Internasional's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Modern Internasional returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Modern Internasional has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Modern Internasional regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Modern Internasional stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Modern Internasional stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Modern Internasional stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Modern Internasional Lagged Returns
When evaluating Modern Internasional's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Modern Internasional stock have on its future price. Modern Internasional autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Modern Internasional autocorrelation shows the relationship between Modern Internasional stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Modern Internasional Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Modern Internasional financial ratios help investors to determine whether Modern Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Modern with respect to the benefits of owning Modern Internasional security.