Megachem Public (Thailand) Market Value
| MGT Stock | THB 2.04 0.04 2.00% |
| Symbol | Megachem |
Megachem Public 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Megachem Public's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Megachem Public.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Megachem Public on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Megachem Public or generate 0.0% return on investment in Megachem Public over 30 days. Megachem Public is related to or competes with Lalin Property, Information, MCS Steel, Mega Lifesciences, and Ekachai Medical. Megachem Public Company Limited engages in the distribution of specialty chemicals for various industries in Thailand More
Megachem Public Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Megachem Public's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Megachem Public upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.91) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.05 |
Megachem Public Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Megachem Public's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Megachem Public's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Megachem Public historical prices to predict the future Megachem Public's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.43) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.29 |
Megachem Public Backtested Returns
Megachem Public is out of control given 3 months investment horizon. Megachem Public has Sharpe Ratio of 0.12, which conveys that the firm had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate and analyze data for twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 15.73% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Megachem Public Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04), standard deviation of 1.86, and Mean Deviation of 1.21 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Megachem Public holds a performance score of 9 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0926, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Megachem Public are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Megachem Public is likely to outperform the market. Use Megachem Public standard deviation, total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and treynor ratio , to analyze future returns on Megachem Public.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
Megachem Public has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Megachem Public time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Megachem Public price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Megachem Public price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Megachem Public lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Megachem Public stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Megachem Public's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Megachem Public returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Megachem Public has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Megachem Public regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Megachem Public stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Megachem Public stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Megachem Public stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Megachem Public Lagged Returns
When evaluating Megachem Public's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Megachem Public stock have on its future price. Megachem Public autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Megachem Public autocorrelation shows the relationship between Megachem Public stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Megachem Public.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Megachem Public financial ratios help investors to determine whether Megachem Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Megachem with respect to the benefits of owning Megachem Public security.