Nusa Palapa (Indonesia) Market Value
| NPGF Stock | IDR 36.00 1.00 2.86% |
| Symbol | Nusa |
Nusa Palapa 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nusa Palapa's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nusa Palapa.
| 11/20/2023 |
| 12/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nusa Palapa on November 20, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nusa Palapa Gemilang or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nusa Palapa over 390 days. Nusa Palapa is related to or competes with Panca Budi, Gunung Raja, Aneka Gas, Mark Dynamics, and Multipolar Technology. PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk produces and sells granule NPK fertilizers and granule micro fertilizers in Indonesia More
Nusa Palapa Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nusa Palapa's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nusa Palapa Gemilang upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.18 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.56) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.33 |
Nusa Palapa Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nusa Palapa's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nusa Palapa's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nusa Palapa historical prices to predict the future Nusa Palapa's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0064 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.50) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.56) |
Nusa Palapa Gemilang Backtested Returns
As of now, Nusa Stock is not too volatile. Nusa Palapa Gemilang has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0305, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0305% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Nusa Palapa, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Nusa Palapa's Standard Deviation of 3.86, mean deviation of 2.62, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0064 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. Nusa Palapa has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0122, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Nusa Palapa's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Nusa Palapa is expected to be smaller as well. Nusa Palapa Gemilang right now secures a risk of 3.88%. Please verify Nusa Palapa Gemilang skewness, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the potential upside and kurtosis , to decide if Nusa Palapa Gemilang will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.06 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Nusa Palapa Gemilang has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nusa Palapa time series from 20th of November 2023 to 2nd of June 2024 and 2nd of June 2024 to 14th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nusa Palapa Gemilang price movement. The serial correlation of -0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Nusa Palapa price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.06 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 96.39 |
Nusa Palapa Gemilang lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nusa Palapa stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nusa Palapa's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nusa Palapa returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nusa Palapa has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nusa Palapa regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nusa Palapa stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nusa Palapa stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nusa Palapa stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nusa Palapa Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nusa Palapa's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nusa Palapa stock have on its future price. Nusa Palapa autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nusa Palapa autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nusa Palapa stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nusa Palapa Gemilang.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Nusa Palapa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nusa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nusa with respect to the benefits of owning Nusa Palapa security.