National Refinery (Pakistan) Market Value
| NRL Stock | 266.68 0.43 0.16% |
| Symbol | National |
National Refinery 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Refinery's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Refinery.
| 07/20/2023 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Refinery on July 20, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Refinery or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Refinery over 510 days. National Refinery is related to or competes with Unilever Pakistan, Hi Tech, WorldCall Telecom, Sitara Chemical, Unity Foods, and Engro Polymer. More
National Refinery Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Refinery's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Refinery upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1063 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.67 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.75 |
National Refinery Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Refinery's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Refinery's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Refinery historical prices to predict the future National Refinery's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1172 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.379 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1302 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.9 |
National Refinery Backtested Returns
National Refinery appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. National Refinery has Sharpe Ratio of 0.14, which conveys that the firm had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for National Refinery, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise National Refinery's Mean Deviation of 1.96, downside deviation of 2.22, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1172 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, National Refinery holds a performance score of 11. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.21, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, National Refinery's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding National Refinery is expected to be smaller as well. Please check National Refinery's downside variance, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and expected short fall , to make a quick decision on whether National Refinery's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.8 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
National Refinery has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Refinery time series from 20th of July 2023 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Refinery price movement. The serial correlation of -0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current National Refinery price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.8 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1032.47 |
National Refinery lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Refinery stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Refinery's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Refinery returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Refinery has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Refinery regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Refinery stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Refinery stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Refinery stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Refinery Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Refinery's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Refinery stock have on its future price. National Refinery autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Refinery autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Refinery stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Refinery.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with National Refinery
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Refinery position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Refinery will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with National Stock
| 0.89 | FFL | Fauji Foods | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | KSBP | KSB Pumps | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | MARI | Mari Petroleum Split | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | LOADS | Loads | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to National Refinery could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace National Refinery when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back National Refinery - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling National Refinery to buy it.
The correlation of National Refinery is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as National Refinery moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if National Refinery moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for National Refinery can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Refinery's price analysis, check to measure National Refinery's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Refinery is operating at the current time. Most of National Refinery's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Refinery's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Refinery's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Refinery to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.