OReilly Automotive (Brazil) Market Value
| ORLY34 Stock | BRL 24.92 0.35 1.42% |
| Symbol | OReilly |
OReilly Automotive 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to OReilly Automotive's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of OReilly Automotive.
| 12/28/2022 |
| 12/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in OReilly Automotive on December 28, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding OReilly Automotive or generate 0.0% return on investment in OReilly Automotive over 720 days. OReilly Automotive is related to or competes with Waste Management, Fidelity National, Automatic Data, Micron Technology, and Metalurgica Gerdau. OReilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools,... More
OReilly Automotive Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure OReilly Automotive's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess OReilly Automotive upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1469 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.23 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.45) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.64 |
OReilly Automotive Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for OReilly Automotive's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as OReilly Automotive's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use OReilly Automotive historical prices to predict the future OReilly Automotive's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1496 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3047 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1445 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.183 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.6 |
OReilly Automotive Backtested Returns
OReilly Automotive appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. OReilly Automotive maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.22, which implies the firm had a 0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for OReilly Automotive, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate OReilly Automotive's Coefficient Of Variation of 501.18, semi deviation of 0.3027, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1496 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, OReilly Automotive holds a performance score of 17. The company holds a Beta of 0.12, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, OReilly Automotive's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding OReilly Automotive is expected to be smaller as well. Please check OReilly Automotive's coefficient of variation, sortino ratio, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether OReilly Automotive's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.60 |
Good predictability
OReilly Automotive has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between OReilly Automotive time series from 28th of December 2022 to 23rd of December 2023 and 23rd of December 2023 to 17th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of OReilly Automotive price movement. The serial correlation of 0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current OReilly Automotive price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.7 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.18 |
OReilly Automotive lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is OReilly Automotive stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting OReilly Automotive's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of OReilly Automotive returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that OReilly Automotive has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
OReilly Automotive regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If OReilly Automotive stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if OReilly Automotive stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in OReilly Automotive stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
OReilly Automotive Lagged Returns
When evaluating OReilly Automotive's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of OReilly Automotive stock have on its future price. OReilly Automotive autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, OReilly Automotive autocorrelation shows the relationship between OReilly Automotive stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in OReilly Automotive.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in OReilly Stock
When determining whether OReilly Automotive offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OReilly Automotive's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Oreilly Automotive Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Oreilly Automotive Stock:Check out OReilly Automotive Correlation, OReilly Automotive Volatility and OReilly Automotive Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on OReilly Automotive. For information on how to trade OReilly Stock refer to our How to Trade OReilly Stock guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
OReilly Automotive technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.