Royal Caribbean (Brazil) Market Value
| R1CL34 Stock | BRL 738.75 5.15 0.70% |
| Symbol | Royal |
Royal Caribbean 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Royal Caribbean's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Royal Caribbean.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Royal Caribbean on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Royal Caribbean Cruises or generate 0.0% return on investment in Royal Caribbean over 30 days. Royal Caribbean is related to or competes with Salesforce, Align Technology, Delta Air, Tyson Foods, Warner Music, Paycom Software, and Telecomunicaes Brasileiras. Royal Caribbean Group operates as a cruise company worldwide More
Royal Caribbean Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Royal Caribbean's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Royal Caribbean Cruises upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.333 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.70) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.45 |
Royal Caribbean Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Royal Caribbean's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Royal Caribbean's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Royal Caribbean historical prices to predict the future Royal Caribbean's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.3152 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6209 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4477 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.372 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6613 |
Royal Caribbean Cruises Backtested Returns
Royal Caribbean appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Royal Caribbean Cruises maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.4, which implies the firm had a 0.4% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Royal Caribbean's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.78% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate Royal Caribbean's Coefficient Of Variation of 247.28, risk adjusted performance of 0.3152, and Semi Deviation of 0.9158 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Royal Caribbean holds a performance score of 31. The company holds a Beta of 1.16, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Royal Caribbean will likely underperform. Please check Royal Caribbean's downside variance, expected short fall, and the relationship between the potential upside and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Royal Caribbean's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.91 |
Excellent predictability
Royal Caribbean Cruises has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Royal Caribbean time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Royal Caribbean Cruises price movement. The serial correlation of 0.91 indicates that approximately 91.0% of current Royal Caribbean price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.91 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.82 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 586.2 |
Royal Caribbean Cruises lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Royal Caribbean stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Royal Caribbean's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Royal Caribbean returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Royal Caribbean has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Royal Caribbean regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Royal Caribbean stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Royal Caribbean stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Royal Caribbean stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Royal Caribbean Lagged Returns
When evaluating Royal Caribbean's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Royal Caribbean stock have on its future price. Royal Caribbean autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Royal Caribbean autocorrelation shows the relationship between Royal Caribbean stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Royal Caribbean Cruises.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Royal Stock
When determining whether Royal Caribbean Cruises is a strong investment it is important to analyze Royal Caribbean's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Royal Caribbean's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Royal Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Royal Caribbean Correlation, Royal Caribbean Volatility and Royal Caribbean Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Royal Caribbean. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Royal Caribbean technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.