RYANAIR HLDGS (Germany) Market Value
| RY4D Stock | EUR 41.40 0.40 0.98% |
| Symbol | RYANAIR |
RYANAIR HLDGS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to RYANAIR HLDGS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of RYANAIR HLDGS.
| 09/03/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in RYANAIR HLDGS on September 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding RYANAIR HLDGS ADR or generate 0.0% return on investment in RYANAIR HLDGS over 90 days. RYANAIR HLDGS is related to or competes with CHIBA BANK, Bausch Health, JSC Halyk, SHIP HEALTHCARE, CVS Health, and Cardinal Health. Ryanair Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled-passenger airline services in Ireland, the Unit... More
RYANAIR HLDGS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure RYANAIR HLDGS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess RYANAIR HLDGS ADR upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 13.09 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0658 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 206.69 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.97 |
RYANAIR HLDGS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for RYANAIR HLDGS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as RYANAIR HLDGS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use RYANAIR HLDGS historical prices to predict the future RYANAIR HLDGS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0653 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.32 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.86) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0988 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.81 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of RYANAIR HLDGS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
RYANAIR HLDGS ADR Backtested Returns
RYANAIR HLDGS is slightly risky given 3 months investment horizon. RYANAIR HLDGS ADR retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0733, which implies the firm had a 0.0733% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to analyze twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.45% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use RYANAIR HLDGS ADR market risk adjusted performance of 1.82, and Semi Deviation of 8.7 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. RYANAIR HLDGS holds a performance score of 5 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.79, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, RYANAIR HLDGS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding RYANAIR HLDGS is expected to be smaller as well. Use RYANAIR HLDGS ADR coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and information ratio , to analyze future returns on RYANAIR HLDGS ADR.
Auto-correlation | 0.20 |
Weak predictability
RYANAIR HLDGS ADR has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between RYANAIR HLDGS time series from 3rd of September 2024 to 18th of October 2024 and 18th of October 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of RYANAIR HLDGS ADR price movement. The serial correlation of 0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current RYANAIR HLDGS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.5 |
RYANAIR HLDGS ADR lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is RYANAIR HLDGS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting RYANAIR HLDGS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of RYANAIR HLDGS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that RYANAIR HLDGS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
RYANAIR HLDGS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If RYANAIR HLDGS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if RYANAIR HLDGS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in RYANAIR HLDGS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
RYANAIR HLDGS Lagged Returns
When evaluating RYANAIR HLDGS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of RYANAIR HLDGS stock have on its future price. RYANAIR HLDGS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, RYANAIR HLDGS autocorrelation shows the relationship between RYANAIR HLDGS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in RYANAIR HLDGS ADR.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in RYANAIR Stock
RYANAIR HLDGS financial ratios help investors to determine whether RYANAIR Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in RYANAIR with respect to the benefits of owning RYANAIR HLDGS security.