SERENDIB HOTELS (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| SHOTX0000 | LKR 12.30 0.20 1.60% |
| Symbol | SERENDIB |
Please note, there is a significant difference between SERENDIB HOTELS's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SERENDIB HOTELS is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SERENDIB HOTELS's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
SERENDIB HOTELS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to SERENDIB HOTELS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of SERENDIB HOTELS.
| 09/17/2024 |
| 12/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in SERENDIB HOTELS on September 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding SERENDIB HOTELS PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in SERENDIB HOTELS over 90 days. More
SERENDIB HOTELS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure SERENDIB HOTELS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess SERENDIB HOTELS PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1613 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.87 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.36) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.84 |
SERENDIB HOTELS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for SERENDIB HOTELS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as SERENDIB HOTELS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use SERENDIB HOTELS historical prices to predict the future SERENDIB HOTELS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1486 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6208 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2021 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2016 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.20) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SERENDIB HOTELS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SERENDIB HOTELS PLC Backtested Returns
SERENDIB HOTELS appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. SERENDIB HOTELS PLC owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.22, which indicates the firm had a 0.22% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By examining SERENDIB HOTELS's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.7% is justified by implied risk. Please review SERENDIB HOTELS's risk adjusted performance of 0.1486, and Coefficient Of Variation of 514.21 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, SERENDIB HOTELS holds a performance score of 17. The entity has a beta of -0.48, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning SERENDIB HOTELS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, SERENDIB HOTELS is likely to outperform the market. Please check SERENDIB HOTELS's downside variance, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and period momentum indicator , to make a quick decision on whether SERENDIB HOTELS's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.86 |
Very good predictability
SERENDIB HOTELS PLC has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between SERENDIB HOTELS time series from 17th of September 2024 to 1st of November 2024 and 1st of November 2024 to 16th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of SERENDIB HOTELS PLC price movement. The serial correlation of 0.86 indicates that approximately 86.0% of current SERENDIB HOTELS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.86 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.71 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.09 |
SERENDIB HOTELS PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is SERENDIB HOTELS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting SERENDIB HOTELS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of SERENDIB HOTELS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that SERENDIB HOTELS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
SERENDIB HOTELS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If SERENDIB HOTELS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if SERENDIB HOTELS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in SERENDIB HOTELS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
SERENDIB HOTELS Lagged Returns
When evaluating SERENDIB HOTELS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of SERENDIB HOTELS stock have on its future price. SERENDIB HOTELS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, SERENDIB HOTELS autocorrelation shows the relationship between SERENDIB HOTELS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in SERENDIB HOTELS PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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SERENDIB HOTELS financial ratios help investors to determine whether SERENDIB Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SERENDIB with respect to the benefits of owning SERENDIB HOTELS security.