Tunas Baru (Indonesia) Market Value
| TBLA Stock | IDR 625.00 5.00 0.81% |
| Symbol | Tunas |
Tunas Baru 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tunas Baru's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tunas Baru.
| 11/04/2024 |
| 12/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tunas Baru on November 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tunas Baru Lampung or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tunas Baru over 30 days. Tunas Baru is related to or competes with Bakrie Sumatera, Sampoerna Agro, Perusahaan Perkebunan, Timah Persero, and Astra Agro. PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk primarily manufactures and sells vegetable cooking oils in Indonesia More
Tunas Baru Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tunas Baru's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tunas Baru Lampung upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.59 |
Tunas Baru Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tunas Baru's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tunas Baru's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tunas Baru historical prices to predict the future Tunas Baru's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0441 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0564 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.78) |
Tunas Baru Lampung Backtested Returns
As of now, Tunas Stock is very steady. Tunas Baru Lampung owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0452, which indicates the firm had a 0.0452% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Tunas Baru Lampung, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Tunas Baru's Coefficient Of Variation of 1862.98, risk adjusted performance of 0.0441, and Semi Deviation of 0.9678 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0497%. Tunas Baru has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.0636, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Tunas Baru are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Tunas Baru is likely to outperform the market. Tunas Baru Lampung right now has a risk of 1.1%. Please validate Tunas Baru treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Tunas Baru will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.07 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Tunas Baru Lampung has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tunas Baru time series from 4th of November 2024 to 19th of November 2024 and 19th of November 2024 to 4th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tunas Baru Lampung price movement. The serial correlation of -0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current Tunas Baru price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.07 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 65.7 |
Tunas Baru Lampung lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tunas Baru stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tunas Baru's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tunas Baru returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tunas Baru has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tunas Baru regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tunas Baru stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tunas Baru stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tunas Baru stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tunas Baru Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tunas Baru's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tunas Baru stock have on its future price. Tunas Baru autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tunas Baru autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tunas Baru stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tunas Baru Lampung.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Tunas Baru financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tunas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tunas with respect to the benefits of owning Tunas Baru security.