Turkish Airlines (Turkey) Market Value
| THYAO Stock | TRY 299.25 1.25 0.42% |
| Symbol | Turkish |
Turkish Airlines 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Turkish Airlines' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Turkish Airlines.
| 08/19/2023 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Turkish Airlines on August 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Turkish Airlines or generate 0.0% return on investment in Turkish Airlines over 480 days. Turkish Airlines is related to or competes with Aselsan Elektronik, Turkiye Petrol, Pegasus Hava, Turkiye Sise, and Eregli Demir. Trk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi provides air transport and aircraft technical maintenance services in Turkey and inter... More
Turkish Airlines Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Turkish Airlines' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Turkish Airlines upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.23 |
Turkish Airlines Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Turkish Airlines' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Turkish Airlines' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Turkish Airlines historical prices to predict the future Turkish Airlines' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0334 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.098 |
Turkish Airlines Backtested Returns
Turkish Airlines is very steady at the moment. Turkish Airlines owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0477, which indicates the firm had a 0.0477% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Turkish Airlines, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Turkish Airlines' Coefficient Of Variation of 2633.78, semi deviation of 1.57, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0334 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0866%. Turkish Airlines has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.6, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Turkish Airlines' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Turkish Airlines is expected to be smaller as well. Turkish Airlines right now has a risk of 1.81%. Please validate Turkish Airlines potential upside, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if Turkish Airlines will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
Turkish Airlines has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Turkish Airlines time series from 19th of August 2023 to 15th of April 2024 and 15th of April 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Turkish Airlines price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Turkish Airlines price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 250.08 |
Turkish Airlines lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Turkish Airlines stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Turkish Airlines' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Turkish Airlines returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Turkish Airlines has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Turkish Airlines regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Turkish Airlines stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Turkish Airlines stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Turkish Airlines stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Turkish Airlines Lagged Returns
When evaluating Turkish Airlines' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Turkish Airlines stock have on its future price. Turkish Airlines autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Turkish Airlines autocorrelation shows the relationship between Turkish Airlines stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Turkish Airlines.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Turkish Stock
Turkish Airlines financial ratios help investors to determine whether Turkish Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Turkish with respect to the benefits of owning Turkish Airlines security.