OriginTrail Market Value
| TRAC Crypto | USD 1.06 0.01 0.95% |
| Symbol | OriginTrail |
OriginTrail 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to OriginTrail's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of OriginTrail.
| 09/01/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in OriginTrail on September 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding OriginTrail or generate 0.0% return on investment in OriginTrail over 90 days. OriginTrail is related to or competes with XRP, Solana, Staked Ether, Sui, Toncoin, Worldcoin, and Stellar. OriginTrail is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.
OriginTrail Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure OriginTrail's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess OriginTrail upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 6.57 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1581 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 34.43 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.64) | |||
| Potential Upside | 13.7 |
OriginTrail Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for OriginTrail's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as OriginTrail's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use OriginTrail historical prices to predict the future OriginTrail's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1447 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.22 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0651 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1694 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 7.4 |
OriginTrail Backtested Returns
OriginTrail is unusually volatile given 3 months investment horizon. OriginTrail maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.2, which implies digital coin had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to break down twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.43% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use OriginTrail Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1447, coefficient of variation of 563.06, and Semi Deviation of 5.4 to evaluate coin specific risk that cannot be diversified away. The crypto holds a Beta of 0.17, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, OriginTrail's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding OriginTrail is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.2 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
OriginTrail has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between OriginTrail time series from 1st of September 2024 to 16th of October 2024 and 16th of October 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of OriginTrail price movement. The serial correlation of -0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current OriginTrail price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
OriginTrail lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is OriginTrail crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting OriginTrail's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of OriginTrail returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that OriginTrail has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the crypto coin is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
OriginTrail regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If OriginTrail crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if OriginTrail crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in OriginTrail crypto coin over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
OriginTrail Lagged Returns
When evaluating OriginTrail's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of OriginTrail crypto coin have on its future price. OriginTrail autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, OriginTrail autocorrelation shows the relationship between OriginTrail crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in OriginTrail.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether OriginTrail offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OriginTrail's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Origintrail Crypto.Check out OriginTrail Correlation, OriginTrail Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on OriginTrail. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
OriginTrail technical crypto coin analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, crypto market cycles, or different charting patterns.