Treasury Wine Estates Stock Market Value
| TSRYF Stock | USD 6.85 0.75 9.87% |
| Symbol | Treasury |
Treasury Wine 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Treasury Wine's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Treasury Wine.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Treasury Wine on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Treasury Wine Estates or generate 0.0% return on investment in Treasury Wine over 30 days. Treasury Wine is related to or competes with Naked Wines, Willamette Valley, Andrew Peller, Fresh Grapes, Naked Wines, Pernod Ricard, and Crimson Wine. Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company primarily in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the Middle E... More
Treasury Wine Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Treasury Wine's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Treasury Wine Estates upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.03 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.10) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.71 |
Treasury Wine Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Treasury Wine's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Treasury Wine's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Treasury Wine historical prices to predict the future Treasury Wine's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.58) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.07 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Treasury Wine's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Treasury Wine Estates Backtested Returns
Treasury Wine Estates owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.066, which indicates the firm had a -0.066% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Treasury Wine Estates exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Treasury Wine's Variance of 5.08, coefficient of variation of (995.86), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.22, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Treasury Wine are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Treasury Wine is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Treasury Wine Estates has a negative expected return of -0.14%. Please make sure to validate Treasury Wine's total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and period momentum indicator , to decide if Treasury Wine Estates performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.51 |
Modest predictability
Treasury Wine Estates has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Treasury Wine time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Treasury Wine Estates price movement. The serial correlation of 0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current Treasury Wine price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.14 |
Treasury Wine Estates lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Treasury Wine pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Treasury Wine's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Treasury Wine returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Treasury Wine has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Treasury Wine regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Treasury Wine pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Treasury Wine pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Treasury Wine pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Treasury Wine Lagged Returns
When evaluating Treasury Wine's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Treasury Wine pink sheet have on its future price. Treasury Wine autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Treasury Wine autocorrelation shows the relationship between Treasury Wine pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Treasury Wine Estates.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Treasury Pink Sheet
Treasury Wine financial ratios help investors to determine whether Treasury Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Treasury with respect to the benefits of owning Treasury Wine security.